The QB Question – What is Actually the Best Way to Find Your Next QB – By Fred Schell of Freddy and the Jets

The QB Question – What is Actually the Best Way to Find Your Next QB – By Fred Schell of Freddy and the Jets

To the surprise of nobody, the NYJ are once again in need of a QB. Regardless of which side of the ‘Rodgers return’ argument you fall on; the Jets will be needing to reset at QB by 2026 at the latest. Every fan, every analyst & every article I read seems to point in a different direction. Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, Jalen Milroe, Jordan Travis, Jamies Winston; the list just keeps growing.

What is actually the best path forward for finding your next franchise quarterback? To try and figure this out, I broke down the QB1s and QB2s across the league to see what information can be gathered. This chart shows all 64 active QBs across the QB1 & 2 slots to start the 2024 season along with the year and round they were drafted (or undrafted).

The Obvious Finding

The first thing that IMMEDIATELY stands out when graphing this out; most active NFL QBs were drafted in the 1st round of their respective years. In total amongst the QBs I charted, 50% of them were drafted in the 1st round with the remaining 50% being drafted in rounds 2-7 or undrafted combined. When this is broken down further, the % of STARTING QBs drafted in the 1st round jumps from 50% to 79%. 

Trying to add a little nuance to these raw stats, we should discuss how out of the 64 active quarterbacks that I charted, not all 64 of them are NFL starting caliber, whether they are starters or backups. As an example of what I mean: Tyrod Taylor is a backup QB, but has started for so many teams in this league over his career that I would consider him a starting caliber QB. Will Levis on the other hand, while actually a starter, has not played like an adequate starting QB at any point this season. For the sake of this exercise, he is considered ‘non-starting caliber’. Amongst QBs that I determined as ‘starting caliber’, about 70% of them are drafted in round 1. While this is a subjective classification, it allows a deeper dig into what’s actually happening.

Additional Statistical Points/Disclaimers on this Data

Charts are great. Visual representations to simplify your findings enough to present your point and recognize patterns. There are some additional data points that aren’t emphasized by this chart that I think are valid talking points however. We saw this above when discussing ‘starting caliber’ QBs.

Additionally though, this chart fails to recognize rookie contract length and QB ages. Obviously, Aaron Rodgers way down in 2006 is not the norm in the 2024 NFL landscape. It’s also common for teams to fill up backup/developmental roles with mid round players on their rookie contracts. This is likely the reason we so many more mid round QBs active but not starting in today’s NFL.

Another data point this chart doesn’t illustrate, in what situations are these QBs succeeding and failing? A QB’s situation entering the league can make a world of difference. A perfect example of this is our own Geno Smith & Sam Darnold. Both drafted by a traditionally bad QB destination, they have both found themselves in an average/above average starting roles on teams with good coaching. (at the time Pete Carroll, and KOC.) Alternatively, it doesn’t show that Kirk Cousins was drafted into the original Kyle Shanahan offense ( a wildly successful offensive model that is currently propping up another 1 of the 7 non-first rounders) and his best seasons under KOC. It doesn’t show that the turnaround of Geno Smith and the best years of Russell Wilson were with the same coach. It also doesn’t compare level of competency of front offices; like for Jalen Hurts for example; who is helped tremendously by their stout offensive line; elite running game and WRs.

 2010-2015 represents a few classes with very few remaining QBs. The QBs that hung around from these years do seem to be primarily from the mid rounds. This chart notably leaves out QBs that are no longer active in the NFL that are still relevant to this discussion however. 2012 for example gave us both Russel Wilson and Kirk Cousins, two solid mid round starters that have stood the test of time in the league. To say 2012 was ruled by mid round QBs is only half the truth however; that was also the year of Andrew Luck. While he retired early, he is still possibly the most talented QB to ever enter the league.

What can the Jets learn from all of this?

 1.)   Well the very 1st lesson they need to learn, is you need to have the coach right. As we learned with Sammy Slinger at 3 and Zach Wilson at 2; how high you draft a QB isn’t nearly as important as the coaching he receives when he gets into the league. Get the coach right before swinging on your next QB. ---- some coaches of note that have successfully developed NFL QBs that may be available:

Brian Daboll, Joe Brady, Kevin Stefanski, Klif Kingsbury

2.)   If you are serious about drafting a franchise QB, you should plan to with a 1st round pick. Nuances aside; its obvious that 1st round QBs have the best chance to succeed in the league. The numbers are clear however that the disparity between 1st round QBs that make it vs the rest is significant. Is it still possible to develop a mid/late round guy? Of course. The NYJ currently lack the coaching staff, patience and/or luck to pull it off unfortunately.   

The Jets QB in 2025

So should the Jets draft a QB in round one of 2025? Well…. maybe. We are still too early to have a clear picture of what the 1st round in the NFL draft will look like in April. We are still waiting on bowl games, college playoffs, the combine, etc. It looks like right now; analysts have 2-3 QBs projected in the 2025 1st round. (Sanders, Ward, Milroe) If the Jets do want to start over at QB, it will likely have to be one of these three guys.

As I have not finished my personal scouting of these 3, I don’t really feel strongly for or against any of these QBs yet. It’s also possible that after the inevitable post-elimination win streak the Jets are famous for that we will not have any of those QBs within reach. Last year, the 3rd quarterback was gone by pick 3 after all. By the time the Jets made their pick at 11 (likely around our pick for next year) there were already 5 QBs off the board. 

Based on their current draft position and the looks of the roster heading into 2025, I think their best bet would be to continue infusing the roster with talent and rolling with the two QBs on roster (See 2025 Roster Preview Article from Dec 6, 2024) With a reasonably talented 2025 roster, our results with the new coach may indicate if we are ready to draft a new QB. It’ll also help indicate if this roster is ready to insert a young, developing QB.

If we have gotten the coach right, I think we should plan on moving some assets around in preparation of drafting a QB in the 2026 draft. This can be achieved easily through a trade down in this year’s draft for future assets. Then regardless of the Jets win total in 2025, we can come out of the 2026 draft with a QB prospect we are really excited about. It’s also worth mentioning; most experts think that the upcoming QB draft class will not be as good as the 2026 class. This is our best path forward in my inflated opinion.